I Wish I had Thought Of That

Hindsight is, as so many have pointed out over the years, a wonderful thing. I am sure that both Napoleon Bonaparte and Adolf Hitler came to realise that invading Russia and setting off for Moscow was not the best decision they ever took in their plans to rule Europe. And, perhaps, it was rash to describe the Titanic as unsinkable. I could go on. It is a virtue of great leaders that they can see things that could go wrong and apply the brakes before it is too late. Winston Churchill visited Germany in the early days of Adolf Hitler, saw what was happening and reacted strongly as Hitler's power grew. As we know, no-one in government listened until it was too late - and then Churchill was given the job of sorting out the mess.

Today, our wonderful Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, has told us that in his opinion banks should be regulated to stop them providing 100% mortgages for house purchases. One commentator, Alex Brummer of the Daily Mail has described Brown's comments as pure "humbug". And he is so right. This is, if nothing else, a wondrous example of closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Indeed, this particular horse got out of the stables about ten or more years ago, disappeared over the horizon, gaining speed as it broke into a gallop capable of out running any race horse on the planet. Totally exhausted by its headlong dash the poor animal fell off the cliffs and into the raging seas about eighteen months ago. What makes our Great Leader's comment even dafter is the fact that these particular stable doors were slammed shut a year ago after the last horse had left.

Of course there should be regulation of the banks. In old-fashioned banks we did not need such regulation because bank managers and building societies regulated themselves. They required a deposit of about 10% and would not lend anyone more than about 3½ times a person's real income against the true value of a property. And these were those same old-fashioned institutions that, as I have said before, borrowed at 3%, lent at 5%, and then closed early so that managers could get down to the golf clubs. Simple but effective. No fancy credit default swaps of indeterminate value, no SIVs, DUVs, FDRs or DDTs or any fancy financial instruments to feed the awesome greed of their staff. And they never built up £40,000,000,000,000 of useless debts.

I await the next piece of news that will reassure us that everything is under control. Think of Andy Murray. At last Britain has a male tennis player capable of beating the best in the world and he did it in spite of the idiots who run tennis in the UK. As I clutch onto the last threads of optimism, I think that there will be enough people in the UK who will manage to pull us up out of the abyss but we have not yet reached the beginning of the end of this depression nor are we even at the point when we can say that we have reached the end of the beginning. But one day the clouds will clear.