Who Will Govern?

I have been away for almost 2 weeks so I have not been able to comment on recent events. But what an eventful 2 weeks this has been, what with a General Election campaign and all flying being stopped by volcanic dust. First I have to have my say on the election.

First some background information. Since 1951 there has been a steady fall in the percentage of the electorate bothering to vote at General Elections. It was not always clear why this happened but politicians were ever ready to say that it was voter apathy. I was never convinced that this was true and there had to be other reasons. Another interesting factor was the percentage of those voting who voted for either the Tories or Labour. In 1951, it was 94%. Again the percentage has declined ever since. In 2005, only 65% of voters voted for Labour or the Tories. Our first past the post electoral system works fine if there are only two parties but as the support for other parties grows the system becomes less and less satisfactory. Now we have reached a level of total absurdity made worse by a new electoral phenomenon - there are three parties running neck and neck.

The present government is pretty unpopular for all sorts of reasons - I have gone through most of them before but I will list them again - Iraq, Afghanistan, the financial collapse, the public debt, unemployment, high taxes, attacks on civil liberties, MPs expenses, waste and a general level of incompetence and remoteness that has wrecked our democracy. Through all this the support for the Tories has been less than enthusiastic and they and their leader, David Cameron, have rarely climbed above 40% support. They cannot avoid the impression of being a party controlled by a clique of Old Etonians - rich Old Etonians. In 2005, Tony Blair won the election with a decent working majority with only 35.5% of the vote and since only 65% of the electorate voted, we have a government in office with a clear mandate to govern but with the backing of only 24% of the electorate. Or put it another way; 76% of the electorate either did not vote at all or voted for other parties. Many think that their vote does not matter and in about 80% of constituencies that is still true. Become MP for a safe seat and you are there for life no matter how useless you are.

With the election called for May 6th, the Tories were still only garnering the support of about 39% of the voters and that would not be enough for them to win an overall majority. Labour were on 30% [or thereabouts] and the Lib Dems on about 21%. The campaign set off like many another with senior party members and ministers trekking around Britain for photo opportunities with selected "ordinary voters". Then came the brand new TV debates between the "three" party leaders. Here, Nick Clegg of the Lib Dems was given equal billing with the other two and suddenly two party politics became three party politics. New boy Nick Clegg was a clear winner of the first debate - he could relax; he had nothing to lose. Now the polls are showing support for the Lib Dems is up over 30% and the other two parties are about the same but with Labour coming third. Now it looks very likely that no party will gain an overall majority. But such is our daft system that if Labour has the fewest votes [say 27%] they will still have most seats; and if Tories and Lib Dems have about 30% of the votes, the Tories will gather 2½ times as many seats as the Lib Dems but still less than Labour. So, if we have the Lib Dems in a coalition government, do they join the party with the most votes or the party with the most seats? A coalition conundrum.

There is still one more debate to go but unless one of the leaders makes a serious mistake - unlikely - there will be a hung parliament. When questioned the electorate have said that this is what they want. They want all parties to stop bickering and get together to sort out the serious problems in front of us. For once we may have a government with the support of more than 50% of the electorate. Of course there could still be some tactical voting to keep certain candidates out. The electorate are very good at massaging the electoral system to get the least bad result. Almost certainly the voting system will now have to change. These are exciting times and although I am less than enamoured with Nick Clegg - who, incidentally, is just as rich and privileged as Cameron and Co - I have to give him credit for transforming this campaign and preventing the two party juggernaut from making its customary progress through the voting booths.

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